[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 031357
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 031357 
TXZ000-031500-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1136
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0857 AM CDT FRI JUN 03 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/SE TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 031357Z - 031500Z

TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR INCREASING SEVERE POTENTIAL AND
POSSIBILITY OF A NEW WW.

MODELS SUGGEST...THAT AS UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY LIFT
OUT OF THE MEXICAN PLATEAU...STRONG DIVERGENT UPPER FLOW FIELD WILL
SPREAD OUT OF NORTHWEST TEXAS INTO THE OKLAHOMA/KANSAS AREA. 
HOWEVER...STRONGER LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION REGIME WILL DEVELOP EAST
NORTHEAST OF THE TEXAS HILL COUNTRY...AS LOW-LEVEL FLOW VEERS FROM
SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY.  THIS MAY
MAINTAIN SUFFICIENT LIFT TO OVERCOME LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC
INHIBITION...AND CONTINUE TO SUPPORT VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
NORTH OF SAN ANTONIO INTO THE COLLEGE STATION AREA BY THIS
AFTERNOON.  EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER WILL SLOW SURFACE HEATING AHEAD OF
ONGOING ACTIVITY...THUS CONVECTION LIKELY WILL REMAIN BASED ABOVE
CAPPED BOUNDARY LAYER. THIS MAY LIMIT SEVERE THREAT THROUGH AT
LEAST MID DAY...BUT VERY ISOLATED LARGE HAIL THREAT MAY PERSIST...
WITH A LOCALIZED DOWNBURST OR TWO ALSO POSSIBLE.

..KERR.. 06/03/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...HGX...FWD...EWX...SJT...

30510022 31309929 31709779 31439676 30159656 29359830
29629943 29889990 

WWWW