[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 030816
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 030816 
TXZ000-NMZ000-030945-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1134
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0316 AM CDT FRI JUN 03 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...WEST TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 379...381...

VALID 030816Z - 030945Z

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STORMS WITH A THREAT FOR ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE
AND LARGE HAIL WILL CONTINUE ACROSS WW 379 AND WW 381 OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS. A NEW SEVERE WATCH WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED WITHIN THE HOUR
TO REPLACE WW 379.

SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A DRYLINE POSITIONED FROM THE TX PANHANDLE SSWWD
ACROSS WEST TX TO NEAR BIG BEND N.P. THE ORIGINAL LINE OF STORMS IS
LOCATED FROM LUBBOCK SSWWD TO NEAR MIDLAND WITH STORMS ALSO
REDEVELOPING NEAR THE DRYLINE TO THE WEST. THE STORMS ARE BEING
SUPPORTED BY AN AXIS OF MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY...A 40 KT
LOW-LEVEL JET AND A VORTICITY MAX ANALYZED BY THE RUC. THE VORTICITY
MAX IS ASSOCIATED WITH A MID-LEVEL JET NOSING INTO THE REGION WHICH
IS INCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR ACROSS THE REGION. WITH DEEP LAYER
SHEAR VALUES FROM 45 TO 55 KT AND THE INSTABILITY...A SUPERCELL
THREAT WILL CONTINUE WITH LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE.

..BROYLES.. 06/03/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...LUB...MAF...

29780236 29660327 29990371 30920358 33340298 34220291
34530234 34470067 33770012 32280025 30630073 29880149 

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