[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 030713
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 030713 
IAZ000-MOZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-030845-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1133
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0213 AM CDT FRI JUN 03 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...NRN KS/SRN NEB

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 380...

VALID 030713Z - 030845Z

AN MCS IS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS SRN NEB AND NRN KS AND WILL
CONTINUE TO HAVE A HAIL AND A MARGINAL WIND DAMAGE THREAT OVER THE
NEXT 2 TO 3 HOURS. CURRENT TRENDS INDICATE THAT A NEW WW EAST OF WW
380 WILL NOT BE NECESSARY.

SFC ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS A SFC LOW IN SW KS WITH A WARM FRONT
EXTENDING NEWD THROUGH NRN KS AND THEN SEWD INTO NE OK. SOUTH OF THE
BOUNDARY...MID 60S F SFC DEWPOINTS ARE RESULTING IN MODERATE
INSTABILITY WHICH IS SUSTAINING THE SRN END OF THE LINE. OBJECTIVE
ANALYSIS SHOWS 30 TO 40 KT OF VERTICAL SHEAR AND THIS COMBINED WITH
STRONG 50 KT LOW-LEVEL JET SHOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH SHEAR AND LIFT TO
KEEP STORMS NEAR SEVERE LEVELS FOR AT LEAST AT FEW MORE HOURS.
HOWEVER...THE CAPPING INVERSION ACROSS THE REGION IS STRENGTHENING
AND THIS MAY CAUSE THE LINE TO BECOME INCREASINGLY ELEVATED AS IT
MOVES INTO ERN NEB AND NE KS. THIS MAY CAUSE SOME WEAKENING IN THE
LINE AND THE STRONGEST STORMS MAY ONLY BE MARGINALLY SEVERE.

..BROYLES.. 06/03/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC...GLD...

40869791 40919636 40599479 39369542 38459662 38569940
39059977 39799919 40589847 40709824 

WWWW