[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 021653
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 021653 
OKZ000-KSZ000-021900-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1121
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1153 AM CDT THU JUN 02 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/ERN KS...NE OK

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 021653Z - 021900Z

UNCERTAINTY EXISTS ABOUT LONG TERM EVOLUTION OF ONGOING
CONVECTION...BUT TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR POSSIBILITY OF WW.

VIGOROUS CLUSTER OF STORMS PERSISTS ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS AND WILL
SLOWLY DEVELOP SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE SALINA AREA THROUGH THE
18-19Z TIME FRAME.  ENHANCED ISENTROPIC ASCENT....ASSOCIATED WITH
WARM ADVECTION ON NORTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF CAPPING MID-LEVEL
THERMAL RIDGE...NOW APPEARS TO BE PRIMARY FORCING FOR ACTIVITY. 
UNCERTAINTY EXISTS ABOUT STRENGTH OF FORCING TO FURTHER MAINTAIN
CONVECTION...BUT NEW DEVELOPMENT MAY SLOWLY CONTINUE INTO AREAS EAST
OF WICHITA THROUGH CHANUTE LATER THIS AFTERNOON.  IF THIS
OCCURS...NORTHERLY COMPONENT TO MID/UPPER FLOW EAST OF SOUTHERN
PLAINS RIDGE WILL ENHANCE SYSTEM RELATIVE WIND PROFILES...WHICH
WOULD COULD BECOME SUPPORTIVE OF SOUTHEASTWARD ACCELERATION OF
CONVECTIVE SYSTEM AND INCREASING SEVERE THREAT WITH ASSOCIATED COLD
POOL.

REGARDLESS...GIVEN NORTHWARD MOISTURE TRANSPORT ALONG EASTERN FRINGE
OF LOW-LEVEL JET AXIS...BENEATH STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES SEEM LIKELY TO BECOME INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE
FOR LARGE HAIL.

..KERR.. 06/02/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN...

38729819 38759768 39089709 38829601 38009495 37409468
36819471 36249553 36319654 36629709 37539787 37759810
38039833 38469844 

WWWW