[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 021551
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 021551 
SCZ000-GAZ000-FLZ000-ALZ000-021745-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1120
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1051 AM CDT THU JUN 02 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...NRN FL...CNTRL/SRN AL AND GA/SRN SC

CONCERNING...CONVECTIVE TRENDS 

VALID 021551Z - 021745Z

THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY THROUGH PEAK HEATING...BUT SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN HIGHLY LOCALIZED AND NEED FOR A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

LINGERING SURFACE FRONT...ASSOCIATED WITH COLD AIR DAMMING IN THE
LEE OF THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...EXTENDS ROUGHLY FROM MYRTLE BEACH
SC THROUGH THE AUGUSTA/MACON GA AREAS INTO THE VICINITY OF TROY AL.
SOUTH OF THIS FRONT...BOUNDARY LAYER IS VERY MOIST...WITH SURFACE
DEW POINTS IN THE 70S...AND BEGINNING TO WARM INTO THE 80S.  WITH
FURTHER HEATING...MIXED LAYER CAPE COULD APPROACH 2000 J/KG BY PEAK
AFTERNOON HEATING.

GIVEN WEAK CAPPING ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST...CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT IS ALREADY ONGOING...WITH ACTIVITY ACROSS SOUTHERN
ALABAMA/SOUTHWEST GEORGIA/AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AIDED BY FORCING
ASSOCIATED WITH SLOW MOVING UPPER TROUGH.  BY 18-20Z...STRONGEST
MID-LEVEL FORCING APPEARS LIKELY IN BAND FROM NEAR THE FLORIDA BIG
BEND INTO AREAS NEAR/EAST OF MACON GA...WHERE GROWING CLUSTER OF
LINE OF STORMS APPEARS POSSIBLE.

SEVERE THREAT APPEARS MITIGATED BY GENERALLY WEAK FLOW...AS LOW-
LEVEL WIND FIELDS HAVE WEAKENED CONSIDERABLY DURING THE PAST 24
HOURS. HOWEVER...25 TO 30 KT SOUTHWESTERLY MID-LEVEL WINDS MAY BE
SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT AT LEAST BRIEF UPDRAFT ROTATION IN STRONGER
CELLS...SOMEWHAT ENHANCING RISK FOR SOME ACTIVITY TO APPROACH OR
BRIEFLY EXCEED SEVERE LIMITS...WITH HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS.

..KERR.. 06/02/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...CHS...CAE...JAX...FFC...TAE...BMX...MOB...

29908812 31018745 31728668 31598552 32118410 33158240
33188148 33118079 33028001 32937976 32458081 31718158
30788210 30438253 30078298 29738334 29658362 

WWWW