[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 021739
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 021738 
COZ000-021945-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1122
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1238 PM CDT THU JUN 02 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/ERN CO

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 021738Z - 021945Z

DEEP CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT APPEARS POSSIBLE WITHIN NEXT FEW HOURS. 
SEVERE THREAT MAY BE LIMITED WITH INITIAL STORMS...BUT TRENDS ARE
BEING MONITORED FOR POSSIBILITY OF A WW.

LAPSE RATES ARE BECOMING VERY STEEP WITH STRONG HEATING ALONG THE
COLORADO FRONT RANGE...AND IT APPEARS AREA OF STRONGER FORCING FOR
UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION AHEAD OF APPROACHING SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL
OVERSPREAD THIS REGION NEXT FEW HOURS. INCREASINGLY DIVERGENT UPPER
FLOW FIELD AND ZONE OF STRONGER WARM ADVECTION ALONG MID-LEVEL
BAROCLINIC IS ALREADY EVIDENT IN LATEST OBSERVATION DATA/OBJECTIVE
ANALYSES...SPREADING INTO THE COLORADO ROCKIES.  THIS WILL AID
INITIATION OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN...NORTH
OF COLORADO SPRINGS THROUGH THE DENVER/FORT COLLINS AREA...LIKELY
DURING THE 18-20Z TIME FRAME.

LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS STILL SOMEWHAT LIMITED ALONG THE FRONT
RANGE...BUT CAPE IN FAVORABLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT SHOULD STILL BE
SUPPORTIVE OF LARGE HAIL THREAT IN STRONGER INITIAL DEVELOPMENT. 
SEVERE THREAT WILL INCREASE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS ACTIVITY
DEVELOPS EAST OF THE FRONT RANGE INTO INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE
THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT ACROSS THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN COLORADO HIGH
PLAINS.

..KERR.. 06/02/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...PUB...BOU...GJT...

39430637 39930596 40470572 40640472 39750408 38930427
38410474 38300547 38900612 

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