[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 020827
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 020827 
FLZ000-021000-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1119
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0327 AM CDT THU JUN 02 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS SWRN FL

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 020827Z - 021000Z

ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND POSSIBLE OVER COASTAL AREAS AND ADJACENT
WATERS BETWEEN FMY-SRQ AS BOW ECHO -- LOCATED ROUGHLY 3 W SANIBEL
ISLAND AS OF 8Z -- MOVES NEWD. AFTER MOVING INLAND AROUND
9-930Z...ACTIVITY SHOULD WEAKEN INLAND AS IT MOVES AWAY FROM HIGHER
THETAE MARINE AIR INTO PROGRESSIVELY MORE STABLE SFC-BASED PARCEL
ENVIRONMENT.  WW NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM BECAUSE OF LIMITED
SPATIAL/TEMPORAL EXTENT OF SEVERE THREAT.

DIFFUSE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IS EVIDENT FROM OKEECHOBEE COUNTY WSWWD
ACROSS NRN LEE COUNTY THEN OFFSHORE...INTERSECTING APEX OF BOW.
COOLING CLOUD TOPS EVIDENT IN IR IMAGERY AS ACTIVITY CONTINUES
MOVING NEWD -- ROUGHLY ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WHERE LOW LEVEL LIFT
SHOULD BE ENHANCED.  ALTHOUGH SFC COOLING ALONG IMMEDIATE COASTAL
AREAS HAS STABILIZED BOUNDARY LAYER SOMEWHAT...EFFECTIVE PARCELS
STILL INCLUDE SFC GIVEN TEMPS MID 70S F S OF BOUNDARY. 
ACCORDINGLY...MODIFIED RUC SOUNDINGS STILL SHOW 1000-1500 J/KG
MLCAPE...WHICH DIMINISHES INLAND....AND ANY SUBSTANTIAL GUSTS
GENERATED BY CONVECTION ARE LIKELY TO REACH SFC OVER COASTAL AREAS.

..EDWARDS.. 06/02/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...TBW...

27328262 27368252 27428235 27408218 27348204 27158193
26888176 26738181 26578194 26478218 26538235 26848254
27238270