[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 020640
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 020640 
NDZ000-SDZ000-020815-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1118
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0140 AM CDT THU JUN 02 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS ND

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 375...

VALID 020640Z - 020815Z

SFC AND REFLECTIVITY DATA INDICATE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MOVING EWD ABOUT
20 KT INTO WRN PORTIONS TOWNER/BENSON/WELLS COUNTIES AS OF 630Z. 
PRESENCE OF ALL CONVECTION BEHIND OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...AND DIABATIC
SFC COOLING ON BOTH SIDES OF BOUNDARY...INDICATES TORNADO
PROBABILITIES HAVE BECOME NEGLIGIBLE.  ISOLATED POTENTIALLY SEVERE
TSTMS MOVING NWD ACROSS WRN MCHENRY COUNTY ARE ELEVATED ATOP COLD
POOL...WITH ELEVATED MUCAPES AROUND 1000 J/KG AND APPROXIMATELY 8
DEG C/KM MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES EVIDENT IN MODIFIED BIS/RUC SOUNDINGS.
 ISOLATED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT REMAINS POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE ALONG
AND W OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...BUT SHOULD REMAIN OVER RELATIVELY
COLD/STABLE SFC AIR GIVEN PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF BOUNDARY.  SUCH
ACTIVITY MAY PRODUCE HAIL BEFORE MOVING RAPIDLY NNEWD INTO
CANADA...AND WILL REMAIN ISOLATED.  THEREFORE ANY REMAINING PORTIONS
WW WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 9Z...UNLESS CANCELED IN MEANTIME.

..EDWARDS.. 06/02/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FGF...ABR...BIS...UNR...

45919946 45920321 48970144 48999752 

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