[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 020439
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 020439 
NDZ000-020545-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1117
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1139 PM CDT WED JUN 01 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL ND

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 375...

VALID 020439Z - 020545Z

STRONGEST WARM ADVECTION REGIME HAS BEEN SHIFTING FARTHER NWD WITH
TIME THIS EVENING AS THE NOSE OF H5 JET SHIFTS NEWD INTO CNTRL ND. 
AS A RESULT...TSTM INTENSITY HAS DECREASED ACROSS ND...WITH
STRONGEST CELLS APPROACHING THE MANITOBA BORDER ALONG A N-S ORIENTED
FRONT.

BUBBLE HIGH HAS DEVELOPED OVER SWRN ND WITH WELL-DEFINED OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY SHIFTING TOWARD THE KBIS AREA.  IT APPEARS INHIBITION HAS
INCREASED IN THE WARM SECTOR ACROSS CNTRL/ERN ND.  GIVEN STRONGER
MASS CONVERGENCE SHIFTING NWD AND INCREASING CAP FARTHER
E/S...PROBABILITIES OF SURFACE-BASED TSTM INITIATION ACROSS CNTRL ND
ALONG THIS BOUNDARY SEEM TO BE LESSENING.  UPDRAFTS ROOTED ATOP THE
COLD DOME FARTHER N/W MAY GROW INTO ORGANIZED CELLS OVERNIGHT AND
MOVE NEWD INTO NCNTRL ND OVERNIGHT WITH HAIL THREATS.  

IF CURRENT TRENDS CONTINUE...THE TORNADO WATCH COULD BE CANCELLED
EARLY AND/OR REPLACED WITH A SEVERE TSTM WATCH.

..RACY.. 06/02/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS...

46110287 48780133 48799786 46069960 

WWWW