[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 020203
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 020203 
NDZ000-SDZ000-020300-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1116
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0903 PM CDT WED JUN 01 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...WRN/CNTRL ND AND NWRN SD

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 374...

VALID 020203Z - 020300Z

TORNADO WATCH WILL LIKELY BE REARRANGED/REPLACED WITH ANOTHER WW BY
03Z.

STRONGEST LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL CONTINUE TO TRANSLATE ENEWD INTO
NWRN SD AND ND THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...ALONG THE NOSE OF A 70
KT H5 JET.  LLJ HAS ALREADY RESPONDED TO INCREASING HEIGHT FALLS AND
RESULTANT WARM ADVECTION HAS CONTRIBUTED TO A RAPID INCREASE IN TSTM
INTENSITY/NUMBER SINCE 00Z...MAINLY ALONG/N OF THE SD/ND BORDER.  

GIVEN THAT STRONGEST MASS FLUX/WARM ADVECTION SHOULD BE CONFINED TO
ND THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...THE PROBABILITY FOR SEVERE WEATHER
APPEARS TO BE MORE CONCENTRATED THAN EARLIER IN THE EVENING.  00Z
BIS SOUNDING SHOWED SUFFICIENT VERTICAL SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS WITH
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. LOW-LEVEL TURNING IN THE EVENING
VWP/HODOGRAPHS ALSO SUGGEST THAT A TORNADO OR TWO COULD OCCUR. 
BUT...GIVEN COOLING BOUNDARY LAYER...STORMS MAY TEND TO BECOME MORE
ELEVATED AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES.  

SINCE IT APPEARS THE SEVERE THREAT WILL LAST SEVERAL MORE HOURS OVER
A MORE CONCENTRATED AREA...THE CURRENT WATCH WILL BE REARRANGED BY
03Z.

..RACY.. 06/02/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FGF...ABR...BIS...UNR...

44500367 48870269 48899911 44450046 

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