[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 012003
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 012003 
NDZ000-012200-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1109
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0303 PM CDT WED JUN 01 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...NORTH DAKOTA

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 012003Z - 012200Z

SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE NEXT FEW HOURS...AND TRENDS
ARE BEING MONITORED FOR A WW.

THOUGH ONE MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH HAS PIVOTED NORTH/
NORTHWESTWARD INTO SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA...UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE
TROUGH IS RAPIDLY DEVELOPING EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL
ROCKIES.  IN RESPONSE...STRONG LOW/MID-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION REGIME
IS UNDERWAY ACROSS A LARGE PART OF WEST CENTRAL/NORTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA...WHICH APPEARS TO BE SUPPORTING ONGOING CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT NEAR BOTTINEAU.

NEW VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT APPEARS LIKELY FARTHER TO THE
SOUTHWEST...ACROSS MINOT INTO AREAS TO THE NORTHWEST OF BISMARCK
...BY THE 21-23Z TIME FRAME.  THIS WILL BE ENHANCED BY INCREASINGLY
DIVERGENT UPPER FLOW FIELD IN LEFT EXIT REGION OF APPROACHING
MID/UPPER JET. TENDENCY SHOULD BE FOR STORMS TO BECOME BASED IN
BOUNDARY LAYER WHICH IS DESTABILIZING WITH SURFACE HEATING AND
MOISTURE ADVECTION.  OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SUGGESTS MIXED LAYER CAPE IS
NOW ON THE ORDER OF 1000 J/KG. SHEAR PROFILES ARE ALREADY STRONG
AND...AS INSTABILITY INCREASES FURTHER...A FEW SUPERCELLS APPEAR
LIKELY.

..KERR.. 06/01/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS...

46770319 47380262 47790188 48490151 48740048 47939908
47019949 46610069 46150161 46200236 46480291 

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