[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 011807
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 011807 
MTZ000-WYZ000-012000-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1108
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0107 PM CDT WED JUN 01 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...NRN WY...PARTS EXTREME SRN MT

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 011807Z - 012000Z

CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR INCREASING SEVERE THREAT
...AND POSSIBILITY OF A WW LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

LEADING EDGE OF STRONGER MID-LEVEL COOLING /500 MB TEMPS DROPPING TO
BELOW -20C/ IN EXIT REGION OF 90-100 KT HIGH LEVEL JET IS NOW NOSING
INTO THE YELLOWSTONE PARK AREA.  DESTABILIZATION HAS ALREADY BEEN
SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT SMALL CLUSTER OF STORMS PAST FEW HOURS
NORTHEAST OF IDAHO FALLS ID.  AS THIS FORCING SPREADS EAST OF
YELLOWSTONE TOWARD THE BIG HORNS...INITIATION OF MORE VIGOROUS
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT APPEARS POSSIBLE BETWEEN NOW AND 21Z.

STRONGER SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS ARE ALREADY EVIDENT NEAR/NORTHWEST
OF WORLAND WY...WHERE MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW REGIME HAS DEVELOPED AND
SURFACE DEW POINTS ARE NOW NEAR 50F.  SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE ONLY
IN THE UPPER 50S...BUT ADDITIONAL HEATING COULD CONTRIBUTE TO
LOCALIZED MOST UNSTABLE CAPE UP TO 1000 J/KG WITH ANTICIPATED
MID-LEVEL COLD ADVECTION.  GIVEN FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILES AND
FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION...STORMS LIKELY WILL PRODUCE
HAIL...AND DAMAGING WIND THREAT COULD INCREASE LATER THIS AFTERNOON
AS CONVECTIVE CLUSTER EXPANDS/SPREADS TOWARD THE INTERSTATE 90
CORRIDOR.

..KERR.. 06/01/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...UNR...BYZ...RIW...

44480902 45090882 45620586 45210445 44290457 44010594
43640748 43880799 43900852 

WWWW