[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 011555
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 011554 
SCZ000-GAZ000-FLZ000-ALZ000-011800-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1107
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1054 AM CDT WED JUN 01 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/SRN AL AND GA

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 011554Z - 011800Z

CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR INTENSIFICATION...AND
POSSIBILITY OF A WW.

LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION...ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER TROUGHING OVER THE
GULF STATES...NOW APPEARS TO BE CENTERED NORTH/NORTHEAST OF MERIDIAN
MS.  ALONG/EAST OF THIS LOW...A BROAD SWATH OF MODERATE SOUTHERLY
LOW-LEVEL FLOW EXTENDS FROM THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH MUCH
OF NORTHERN FLORIDA/ALABAMA AND GEORGIA...CENTERED ALONG AN AXIS
EAST OF THE FLORIDA BIG BEND THROUGH CENTRAL GEORGIA.  EASTERLY
COMPONENT TO SURFACE WINDS BENEATH THIS REGIME IS ENHANCING
LOW-LEVEL SHEAR PROFILES...AND COULD BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT AN
ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT IN VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WITH DEW POINTS
AROUND 70F.

THIS AIR MASS IS GENERALLY ALONG/SOUTH OF FRONTAL ZONE ASSOCIATED
WITH COLD AIR DAMMING IN THE LEE OF THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...
ROUGHLY NEAR/SOUTH OF BIRMINGHAM AL AND MACON GA INTO SOUTHERN SOUTH
CAROLINA.  WEAK UPPER IMPULSE LIFTING INTO SOUTHWEST GEORGIA ALREADY
APPEARS TO BE SUPPORTING SOME INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. 
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DEEPEN/BECOME SURFACE BASED THIS
AFTERNOON AS BOUNDARY LAYER SLOWLY WARMS AND CAPE INCREASE UP TO
1000 J/KG.

OTHER MORE ISOLATED STORMS WITH TORNADO/DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL
COULD DEVELOP ALONG BOUNDARY IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO SURFACE LOW
ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA.

..KERR.. 06/01/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...CHS...JAX...FFC...TAE...BMX...

30778171 30328265 30128361 30478424 31108409 31758475
31938591 32298696 33078744 33668673 33098524 32438320
32758200 32468119 

WWWW