[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 011017
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 011017 
TXZ000-011145-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1103
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0517 AM CDT WED JUN 01 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...MUCH OF S TX

CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 368...

VALID 011017Z - 011145Z

MAINTAIN WW ALONG/AHEAD OF CONVECTIVE ARC.

LARGE MCS WITH BOW ECHO WILL CONTINUE MOVING SEWD ACROSS TX COASTAL
PLAIN BETWEEN SAT AND MID/LOWER TX COAST.  ACTIVITY PRIMARILY WILL
AFFECT REGION BETWEEN CRP-HOU...INCLUDING PSX AND VCT AREAS. 
OVERALL CONVECTIVE TENDENCY IS WEAKENING...HOWEVER SOME POTENTIAL
REMAINS FOR SEVERE GUSTS IN A FEW LOCALES.  IF PRESENT TRENDS
CONTINUE...ADDITIONAL WW WOULD NOT BE REQUIRED...BUT WILL CONTINUE
TO MONITOR.  HAIL POTENTIAL SHOULD BE MARGINAL AROUND BOW AND
SOMEWHAT GREATER WITH STORMS ON W END OF MCS -- WHERE IR CLOUD TOP
TEMPS ARE COLDER AND WHERE LARGER LAPSE RATES AND BUOYANCY ARE
EVIDENT.  RUC/ETA FCST SOUNDINGS INDICATE AROUND 1500-2000 J/KG
ELEVATED MUCAPE ALONG MID TX COAST BY 12Z...STRENGTHENING TO
2000-3000 J/KG RANGE INVOF LRD.  FAVORABLE EFFECTIVE SHEARS WILL
CONTINUE OVER REGION -- IN 55-75 KT RANGE GIVEN STRONG VEERING WITH
HEIGHT OF LOW-MIDDLE LEVEL WINDS.

2-3 INCH/HOUR RAIN RATES WILL REMAIN COMMON.  VERY EFFICIENT AND
ABUNDANT PRECIP PROCESSING IS LIKELY WITH 850 MB DEW POINTS 15-18
DEG C...PW 1.75-2 INCHES AND VWPS INDICATING 35-50 KT STORM-RELATIVE
INFLOW.  ECHO TRAINING POTENTIAL ALSO IS GREATEST ALONG W EDGE OF
MCS...ENHANCING HEAVY RAIN HAZARD.

..EDWARDS.. 06/01/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...HGX...CRP...EWX...BRO...SJT...

28160024 30360041 30549741 29409736 29839687 29669635
28959566 28759561 28289652 27949699 27409733 26919736
25959714 25969730 25909734 25849735 25859742 26009763
26059814 26239871 26369877 26409910 26909937 27119947
27539948 27799987 28180017 

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