[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 010809
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 010809 
TXZ000-010945-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1102
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0309 AM CDT WED JUN 01 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...MUCH OF SOUTH TX...SRN HILL COUNTRY TO RIO GRANDE
VALLEY AND MIDDLE-LOWER TX COAST

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 368...369...

VALID 010809Z - 010945Z

PRIND SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION WILL BE S OF WW 369 BY 9Z...THEREFORE
WW 368 WILLEXPIRE AS SCHEDULED.  SEVERAL STRONG-SEVERE TSTMS --
INCLUDING HEAVY-PRECIP SUPERCELLS BETWEEN JCT-SAT AND ELEVATED
SUPERCELL SW JCT AS OF 8Z -- WILL POSE RISK OF DAMAGING HAIL/GUSTS
AS THEY MOVE SEWD.  ACTIVITY SHOULD CONGEAL INTO MCS WITH DAMAGING
BOW ECHO POSSIBLE...AS WIND BECOMES MORE OF PRIMARY CONCERN. 
GREATEST SEVERE POTENTIAL APPEARS TO BE FROM SAT METRO AREA TOWARD
UVA...THEN SSEWD ACROSS COT AND ALONG I-37.  AREAS SE OF WW 368 MAY
REQUIRE ADDITIONAL WW BY 12Z.

SEPARATE AREA OF TSTMS DEVELOPING FROM COT AREA SEWD TOWARD JIM HOGG
COUNTY APPEAR ROOTED ABOVE BOUNDARY LAYER ATTM.  HOWEVER...THIS
ACTIVITY IS IN ENVIRONMENT OF STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES AND
FAVORABLE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR FOR LARGE HAIL.  ELEVATED MUCAPE OVER
3000 J/KG AND 60-80 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR ARE PRESENT IN RUC SOUNDINGS
ACROSS PARTS OF DEEP S TX.

FARTHER NE...1500-2500 J/KG ELEVATED MUCAPE IS EVIDENT E OF WW
368...BUT DIMINISHING WITH EWD EXTENT AS CINH INCREASES.  THIS AREA
IS E OF LOW LEVEL THETAE AXIS...WHICH RUNS ROUGHLY SAT-CRP.  SEVERE
POTENTIAL EXISTS FROM CLL AREA SWD TO MIDDLE TX COAST BUT LESS WELL
ORGANIZED THAN WITH CONVECTION APCHG SAT.

..EDWARDS.. 06/01/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...HGX...FWD...CRP...EWX...BRO...SJT...

28160025 30400043 30220117 31380116 31989847 30829847
30410041 30350040 30579739 28379729 30599739 31079691
28809553 28259650 27779709 27409732 26959737 26419718
26079714 25969714 25959720 25969727 25949729 25939734
25839734 25839738 25869745 25909753 26039765 26049808
26119832 26249857 26259872 26379881 26409908 26559916
26889929 26939941 27099948 27289946 27609955 27739978
28180010 

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