[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 010723
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 010723 
FLZ000-010930-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1101
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0223 AM CDT WED JUN 01 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...MUCH OF FL PENINSULA EXCEPT NWRN AND EXTREME
W-CENTRAL

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 366...

VALID 010723Z - 010930Z

CONTINUE WW ALONG/AHEAD OF BROKEN CONVECTIVE BAND...EVIDENT AT 7Z
FROM WRN CHARLOTTE/SRN SARASOTA COUNTIES NEWD TOWARD DAB.

THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT EWD ACROSS CENTRAL/SWRN FL
THROUGH 10Z WW EXPIRATION...WITH POTENTIAL FOR OCCASIONAL DAMAGING
WIND AND/OR TORNADOES...ASSOCIATED MAINLY WITH MESOCIRCULATIONS IN
LEWPS/BOWS.  PRIND SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL
EXIST BEYOND 10Z TO SUSTAIN THIS POTENTIAL OVER MORE OF SRN/ERN FL. 
THEREFORE AREA S AND E OF WW WILL BE MONITORED FOR ADDITIONAL OR
REPLACEMENT WW...WHICH IF NECESSARY WOULD BE ISSUED BEFORE 10Z.

7Z SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS BACKED SFC WINDS AHEAD OF CONVECTIVE
BOUNDARY...ENHANCING LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS. ALTHOUGH SOME
DIABATICALLY FORCED DECOUPLING OF BOUNDARY LAYER IS EVIDENT OVER
INTERIOR OF PENINSULA...MODIFIED MIA RAOB AND RUC SOUNDINGS INDICATE
EFFECTIVE LIFTED LAYER REACHES DOWN TO AT OR JUST ABOVE SFC. 
MLCAPES AROUND 1000 J/KG ARE EVIDENT OVER KISSIMMEE VALLEY WITH
HIGHER VALUES FARTHER SW AND E.  ANY ACTIVITY SURVIVING RELATIVE SFC
THETAE MIN OVER CENTRAL PENINSULA WILL ENCOUNTER INCREASING SBCAPE
AND WEAKENING SBCIN AS IT APCHS E COAST.  PRONOUNCED THERMAL/MOIST
AXES ARE ANALYZED FROM MIA NWD TO JUST OFFSHORE DAB.

..EDWARDS.. 06/01/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...TBW...JAX...

26398173 26758296 29688204 29318076 28988087 28818075
28468051 28438055 28318060 28098056 27798039 27338023
26698035 25878097 25668130 25788142 25848154 25858162
25838168 26098180 26278183 26428187 

WWWW