[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 010450
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 010450 
TXZ000-OKZ000-010615-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1100
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1150 PM CDT TUE MAY 31 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...NCNTRL TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 367...

VALID 010450Z - 010615Z

WELL-DEFINED BOWING MCS WAS MOVING EAST ACROSS WATCH 367 AT ABOUT
35KT. AIR MASS AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM REMAINS WARM AND UNSTABLE TO
SFC-BASED PARCELS ALTHOUGH LOW LEVEL INHIBITION IS LIKELY TO
GRADUALLY INCREASE AS SFC TEMPS COOL A MORE FEW DEGREES.
NONETHELESS...CURRENT MOVEMENT OF THE BOW INTO FAVORABLE ESELY LOW
LEVEL FLOW...AND DCAPE VALUES NEAR 1000 J/KG...SUGGEST THAT NEAR
SEVERE WIND GUSTS OF BETWEEN 35-50KT ARE STILL POSSIBLE NEAR THE
APEX OF THE BOW...WHICH SHOULD PASS SOUTH OF THE FT. WORTH AREA
AROUND 1AM.

NRN SEGMENT OF THE BOW INTERSECTS DEEP CONVECTION LINED OUT AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTH ACROSS OK. A COUPLE OF STRONGER UPDRAFTS
IN THIS AREA COULD STILL PRODUCE HAIL AND BRIEFLY GUSTY WINDS. THE
FORMATION OF A WAKE LOW WITH STRENGTHENING POST-TSTM WINDS IS
POSSIBLE GIVEN THIS PATTERN. IF THIS WERE TO OCCUR...STRONG PRESSURE
FALLS MIGHT BE OBSERVED WITHIN THE TRAILING STRATIFORM RAIN REGION
ACROSS NW TX IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

..CARBIN.. 06/01/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...

31539744 31509891 32689889 33119863 33869776 33849730 

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