[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 302313
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 302313 
SDZ000-310115-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1905
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0613 PM CDT SAT JUL 30 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...WRN AND CENTRAL SD

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 302313Z - 310115Z

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS TRACKING ESEWD FROM THE BLACK HILLS
INTO W-CENTRAL SD WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH A LOCALIZED THREAT OF
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS EVENING. LOCALIZED
NATURE OF THREAT SUGGESTS THAT WW WILL LIKELY NOT BE REQUIRED IN
THIS AREA.

AT 30/23Z...SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS SSWWD FROM WEAK CYCLONE CENTER
/1010MB/ NEAR BIS INTO W-CENTRAL NEB. BOUNDARY LAYER HAS BECOME
DEEPLY-MIXED ACROSS MUCH OF SD ALONG AND WEST OF THE TROUGH
AXIS...WITH SFC-3KM LAPSE RATES ROUGHLY DRY ADIABATIC. THIS HAS
ALLOWED CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE TO BE REACHED...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
BLACK HILLS AREA WHERE MUCH OF THE INITIAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
HAS BEEN FOCUSED DURING THE PAST HOUR. RAPID CITY VAD WIND PROFILE
INDICATES SFC-6KM SHEAR OF 30KT...SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW LONG-LIVED
CELLS. SURFACE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS IN EXCESS OF 40F SUGGEST
LOCALIZED DAMAGING WINDS ARE POSSIBLE WITH DOWNDRAFTS FROM THESE
STORMS AS THEY TRACK ESEWD AT 15-20 KT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS
EVENING. ISOLATED LARGE HAIL IS POSSIBLE WITH STRONGEST
CORES...HOWEVER...LOW DEWPOINTS ARE CONTRIBUTING TO MLCAPE VALUES OF
ONLY AROUND 1000 J/KG AND WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS ARE RELATIVELY HIGH
FOR MUCH SEVERE HAIL PRODUCTION FROM THESE CELLS. WEAK SYNOPTIC
SUPPORT SUGGESTS SEVERE ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET AS
BOUNDARY LAYER STARTS TO COOL.

..BANACOS.. 07/30/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...ABR...UNR...

43150243 43480328 44000388 44450398 44910378 45100318
45170231 45110096 45110006 44879984 44379962 43819946
43559966 43400023 

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