[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 302037
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 302036 
NDZ000-302230-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1904
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0336 PM CDT SAT JUL 30 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...ND

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 302036Z - 302230Z

UNCERTAINTIES CONCERNING STRENGTH OF INHIBITION EXIST...BUT
POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS APPEARS TO BE
INCREASING.  TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR POSSIBILITY OF A WW.

IMPULSE EMBEDDED WITHIN SUBTROPICAL BELT OF WESTERLIES...EXTENDING
FROM THE NORTH CENTRAL ROCKIES THROUGH NORTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA...
APPEARS TO BE CONTRIBUTING TO WEAKENING CAP SOUTH AND EAST OF
BROAD/WEAK SURFACE LOW CENTERED OVER NORTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. 
WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING TOWARD 100F ACROSS THIS REGION...BOUNDARY
LAYER HAS BECOME DEEPLY MIXED...WITH MOISTURE SUFFICIENT FOR CAPE IN
EXCESS OF 4000 J/KG.  HIGH-BASED CONVECTION ALREADY APPEARS TO BE
FORMING WEST/SOUTH OF BISMARCK...AND...AS THIS ACTIVITY DEVELOPS
EASTWARD IN FAVORABLE CONVERGENT LOW-LEVEL FLOW REGIME...POTENTIAL
FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT APPEARS TO EXIST DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. 
GIVEN MAGNITUDE OF POTENTIAL INSTABILITY...THIS COULD BE FAIRLY
RAPID...WITH MODERATE WESTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW CONTRIBUTING TO
SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS...DESPITE WEAK LOW-LEVEL WIND
FIELDS.

..KERR.. 07/30/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS...

48550145 48819992 47749841 46789767 46179961 46990074
47610142 

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