[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 310612
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 310612 
MNZ000-310745-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1906
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0112 AM CDT SUN JUL 31 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...NRN MN

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 310612Z - 310745Z

POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL INCREASE ACROSS NRN
MN EARLY THIS MORNING. CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR A
POSSIBLE WW.

LATEST MESOANALYSIS PLACES SURFACE LOW OVER NERN ND /APPROXIMATELY
60 NE DVL/ WITH ATTENDANT WAVY WARM FRONT STRETCHING FROM SURFACE
LOW ACROSS FAR SERN MANITOBA AND THEN GENERALLY SEWD THROUGH NERN MN
INTO NWRN WI. STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE STORMS 50-60 WNW RRT HAVE
STARTED TO MOVE/DEVELOP MORE SEWD OVER THE PAST HALF HOUR WITH
EXTRAPOLATION PLACING LEADING EDGE OF THESE STORMS TO INTERNATIONAL
BORDER BY 07Z. RUC PROXIMITY SOUNDINGS S OF WARM FRONT INDICATE THAT
AIR MASS REMAINS MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MUCAPES OF 2000-2500 J/KG.


PRIMARY UNCERTAINTY IS WHETHER COLD POOL ASSOCIATED WITH ONGOING
STORMS WILL BE ABLE TO OVERCOME STRONG CAP IN PLACE ACROSS
INSTABILITY AXIS...WHICH WOULD ALLOW STORMS TO PERSIST AND MAINTAIN
THEIR INTENSITY. CURRENT GRAND FORKS AND DULUTH VWPS INDICATE MORE
THAN SUFFICIENT VERTICAL SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS AND/OR BOWING
STRUCTURES CAPABLE OF MAINLY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED AND A WW MAY BE REQUIRED IF IT
BECOMES APPARENT THAT A SUSTAINED AND ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF NRN MN.

..MEAD.. 07/31/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DLH...FGF...

48979711 48989516 48519276 47899257 47589341 47409441
47739535 48459693 

WWWW