[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 302007
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 302007 
WIZ000-MIZ000-MNZ000-302200-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1903
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0307 PM CDT SAT JUL 30 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF NE MN...NRN WI...INTO PARTS OF WRN UPPER
MI

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 302007Z - 302200Z

TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR INCREASING SEVERE THREAT AND
POSSIBILITY OF A WW.

WARM ADVECTION REGIME PERSISTS ACROSS MUCH OF THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY/UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION...ON NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF SOUTHERN 
ROCKIES SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.  MODELS SUGGESTS THIS WILL BECOME FOCUSED
WHERE LOW-LEVEL JET INTERSECTS DEVELOPING WARM FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS
NORTHERN WISCONSIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON.  

SOUTH OF FRONT...BOUNDARY LAYER IS RAPIDLY DESTABILIZING...AND WITH
FURTHER HEATING/MOISTURE ADVECTION...MIXED LAYER CAPE SEEMS LIKELY
TO EXCEED 2000 J/KG ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHWEST/NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN
SHORTLY.  SOME UNCERTAINTY EXISTS WITH REGARD TO STRENGTH OF
CAPPING...BUT INITIATION OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT APPEARS POSSIBLE
ALONG/SOUTH OF WARM FRONT AS EARLY AS THE 30/22-31/00Z TIME FRAME. 
THIS MAY BE AIDED BY INCREASINGLY DIFLUENT/DIVERGENT UPPER FLOW
REGIME...ASSOCIATED WITH IMPULSES PROGRESSING THROUGH MAIN BELT OF
WESTERLIES ALONG THE CANADIAN/U.S. BORDER...AND SUBTROPICAL BELT OF
WESTERLIES ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL PLAINS/MID MISSOURI VALLEY.

GIVEN MAGNITUDE OF INSTABILITY...SHEAR PROFILES BENEATH MODERATE
NORTHWESTERLY MID/UPPER FLOW WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS...
PRIMARILY WITH A LARGE HAIL/WIND THREAT.

..KERR.. 07/30/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MQT...GRB...DLH...ARX...MPX...

46089272 46579306 47149313 46929204 46909062 46648921
46168796 45268791 44658842 44598944 44919114 45489217 

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