[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 301912
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 301912 
AZZ000-NVZ000-CAZ000-302145-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1902
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0212 PM CDT SAT JUL 30 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...INTERIOR SRN CA AND FAR SRN NV

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HEAVY RAINFALL 

VALID 301912Z - 302145Z

ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING ACROSS THE IMPERIAL VALLEY OF CA AND THE ADJACENT MTNS.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO OCCUR WITH ANTICIPATED SLOW MOTION
OF INDIVIDUAL CELLS.

SURFACE MOISTURE AXIS...WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID
70S...EXTENDS NNNWD FROM GULF OF CA INTO THE IMPERIAL VALLEY OF CA
AND ERN SLOPES OF THE COASTAL RANGES. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES
TO INCREASE NWD INTO THE MOJAVE DESERT AND FAR SRN NV. AT
19Z...STRONG SURFACE HEATING IS CONTRIBUTING TO MODERATE INSTABILITY
AND INITIAL TSTM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS AREAS OF ELEVATED TERRAIN OF SRN
CA. CONTINUED INSOLATION SHOULD RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN TSTM
COVERAGE DURING THE PEAK IN DIURNAL HEATING.

SYNOPTIC-FORCING IS NOT STRONG...HOWEVER...WV IMAGERY SUGGESTS A
MID-LEVEL VORT CENTER IS PROGRESSING ACROSS THE COASTAL RANGES OF
SRN CA AT 19Z...WHICH MAY CONTRIBUTE TO OVERALL TSTM COVERAGE ACROSS
THE INTERIOR DESERTS. VERTICAL SHEAR IS WEAK...WITH SFC-6KM VALUES
RANGING FROM 10-20KT. THIS SUGGESTS STORMS WILL EXHIBIT PULSE
CHARACTERISTICS WITH LOCALLY DAMAGING MICROBURSTS THE PRIMARY SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT. HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES...AROUND 2.0" IN THE
IMPERIAL VALLEY...AND SLOW STORM MOTIONS WILL ALSO CONTRIBUTE TO THE
THREAT OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH THESE STORMS.

..BANACOS.. 07/30/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...PSR...VEF...SGX...HNX...LOX...

32681653 32971676 33571697 33721718 34201754 34611786
35251798 35741770 35991705 36301628 36621588 36501521
35951474 35091460 34301454 33631462 33321473 32781471
32711521 

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