[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 292250
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 292250 
AZZ000-NVZ000-CAZ000-300115-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1901
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0550 PM CDT FRI JUL 29 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...CA...AZ...NV

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 292250Z - 300115Z

STRONG TO ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY INCREASE INTO THE
EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF THE LWR CO RIVER VALLEY. HIGH WINDS...
HAIL... AND HEAVY RAIN WILL ACCOMPANY SOME OF THE MORE INTENSE
ACTIVITY. A WATCH IS NOT IMMINENT BASED ON SOMEWHAT DISORGANIZED AND
RANDOM NATURE OF ONGOING CONVECTION.

VIGOROUS MULTICELLULAR STORMS HAVE INITIATED ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS OF
SRN CA AND NRN AZ THIS AFTERNOON IN AN INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AND
WEAKLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. ANOTHER SLIGHTLY MORE ORGANIZED CLUSTER
OF CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK ELY WAVE WAS TRANSLATING WNWWD
ACROSS NRN MEXICO AND THE DESERTS OF SRN AZ. STREAMLINE ANALYSIS
ACROSS THE LWR CO RIVER VALLEY REVEALS A MID LEVEL DEFORMATION/SHEAR
ZONE. AIR MASS HAS BECOME STRONGLY UNSTABLE BENEATH THIS WEAK SHEAR
AXIS AND THIS COULD SUPPORT ADDITIONAL STORM DEVELOPMENT...AND/OR
SUSTAIN ONGOING CONVECTION DRIFTING INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE
EVENING.

LARGE SFC DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS IN ADVANCE OF DEVELOPING ELY WAVE
COMPLEX COULD ENHANCE BOTH DOWNDRAFT POTENTIAL AND COLD POOL
DEVELOPMENT. THIS COULD RESULT IN HIGH WINDS AND REDUCED VISIBILITY
IN BLOWING DUST OVER PARTS OF SW AZ ALONG I-8 OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF HOURS. MORE ISOLATED STORMS COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY HIGH WINDS AND
PERHAPS SMALL HAIL FROM BLYTHE NWD TO LAKE HAVASU CITY TO KINGMAN
THROUGH THE EVENING.

..CARBIN.. 07/29/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...TWC...FGZ...PSR...VEF...

32131319 33621538 34161574 35041613 35661565 36111538
36251448 36021371 34721301 34341248 33831172 33341135
32591146 

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