[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 291758
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 291758 
SCZ000-FLZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-291930-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1900
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1258 PM CDT FRI JUL 29 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/SRN GA...CNTRL/ERN SC...FL

CONCERNING...CONVECTIVE TRENDS 

VALID 291758Z - 291930Z

ISOLATED PULSE SEVERE WIND/HAIL EVENTS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON.

INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS ONGOING...MOSTLY CONFINED TO
AREAS SOUTH OF SURFACE FRONT WHICH EXTENDS FROM EASTERN NORTH
CAROLINA INTO THE LEE OF THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS.  VERY MOIST
BOUNDARY LAYER...WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 70S...IS WARMING INTO THE
90S...CONTRIBUTING TO STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MIXED LAYER
CAPE IN EXCESS OF 2000 J/KG.  THUS...DESPITE WEAKLY SHEARED FLOW
REGIME...THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY
SUPPORTIVE OF ISOLATED DOWNBURSTS...POSSIBLY SOME MARGINALLY SEVERE 
HAIL... IN STRONGER STORMS.  LARGE-SCALE FORCING IS WEAK...BUT
ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE NEAR OUTFLOWS/SEA BREEZES...PERHAPS
SURFACE FRONT...SHOULD MAINTAIN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THROUGH AND
BEYOND THE PEAK HEATING HOURS.

..KERR.. 07/29/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...ILM...CHS...CAE...MFL...MLB...TBW...JAX...FFC...TAE...

32918449 33328307 33548176 33918090 34388011 34007940
33287961 32648065 32058140 31028165 30068162 29098126
28688094 27698054 26688090 25838082 26088142 26828182
27528201 28228217 28988247 30258330 30458435 30318473
30908525 31618459 32388454 

WWWW