[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 290736
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 290736 
IAZ000-MNZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-290900-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1899
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0236 AM CDT FRI JUL 29 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/SRN SD

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 290736Z - 290900Z

POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED LARGE HAIL WILL EXIST WITH MOST INTENSE
STORMS EARLY THIS MORNING. NO WW IS ANTICIPATED.

TSTMS HAVE INCREASED IN INTENSITY OVER THE PAST HALF HOUR OVER
PORTIONS OF SERN SD...NAMELY MCCOOK SEWD INTO TURNER AND UNION
COUNTIES. RUC OBJECTIVE FIELDS SUGGEST THAT THIS ACTIVITY IS ALONG
ERN EDGE OF STRONGEST LOW-LEVEL WAA OCCURRING N OF STATIONARY
SURFACE FRONT WHICH STRETCHES FROM N-CNTRL NEB EWD ACROSS NRN IA.
RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND PLAN VIEW FIELDS INDICATE MODEST
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND RESULTANT MUCAPES OF 1000-2000 J/KG IN AN
AXIS FROM NWRN SD SEWD INTO NWRN IA. CORRESPONDING VERTICAL WIND
PROFILES SHOW RELATIVELY WEAK WINDS NEAR THE LIFTED PARCEL LEVEL
INCREASING TO 40-50 KTS IN THE MID-LEVELS WITH 50-60 KTS OF
EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR.

STORMS OVER SERN SD MAY TEND TO WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS
AS THEY MOVE SEWD OUT OF REGION OF STRONGER ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND
VERTICAL SHEAR. STRONGER UPSTREAM FORCING FOR ASCENT ALONG LLJ AXIS
MAY SUPPORT ADDITIONAL STORM DEVELOPMENT OVER PORTIONS OF CNTRL
SD...WHERE ISOLATED LARGE HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

..MEAD.. 07/29/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX...ABR...LBF...UNR...

44790247 45050135 43699569 42539542 42139632 42899978
43350163 43870249 

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