[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 290025
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 290024 
NCZ000-290200-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1898
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0724 PM CDT THU JUL 28 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...NC

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 290024Z - 290200Z

A NUMBER OF SEVERE STORMS WITH HIGH WINDS AND HAIL CONTINUE TO
AFFECT PARTS OF THE NC PIEDMONT THIS EVENING. GIVEN TIME OF DAY AND
GENERALLY SMALL AREAL COVERAGE OF SEVERE THREAT...A WATCH IS NOT
LIKELY AT THIS TIME.

AN ARC OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS CONTINUES MOVING NEWD AT 25-30KT
FROM ALEXANDER COUNTY TO DAVIDSON COUNTY TO MONTGOMERY COUNTY NC
THIS EVENING. THE COMPLEX OF STORMS HAS UNDERGONE UPSCALE
ORGANIZATION ALONG A DEEPENING CONVECTIVELY INDUCED COLD POOL FROM
LESS ORGANIZED ACTIVITY ORIGINALLY INITIATING OVER THE CLT AREA.
WHILE RECENT VIL TRENDS WOULD INDICATE A SLIGHT WEAKENING IN
INTENSITY ALONG THE LINE...SUFFICIENT DOWNSTREAM INSTABILITY AND
SHEAR SHOULD MAINTAIN A SEVERE WIND AND HAIL THREAT ACROSS THE
INT/GSO AREA OVER THE NEXT HOUR. THERE APPEARS TO BE A WEAK OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY INTERSECTING THE LINE SOUTH OF ASHEBORO. ENHANCED
CONVERGENCE/INFLOW INTO THIS PART OF THE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX COULD
ENHANCE STORM INTENSITY THIS AREA.

A COUPLE OF ISOLATED CELLS AHEAD OF THE LINE ARE ALSO OCCURRING
WITHIN VERY UNSTABLE AND MODESTLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT AND COULD
PRODUCE HAIL TO THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST OF THE RDU AREA OVER THE NEXT
HOUR OR SO.

..CARBIN.. 07/29/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...RAH...RNK...GSP...

35437872 35257989 35868023 35988142 36408111 36438019
36377912 36217856 35937841 

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