[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 282306
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 282306 
NEZ000-SDZ000-MTZ000-WYZ000-290100-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1897
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0606 PM CDT THU JUL 28 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...WRN SD AND WRN/CNTRL NEB

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 282306Z - 290100Z

SCATTERED TSTMS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DEVELOPING FROM FAR SE MT/FAR
NE WY/WRN SD INTO WRN/NCNTRL NEB. ALTHOUGH NOT CURRENTLY
ANTICIPATED...WILL MONITOR DEVELOPMENTAL TRENDS FOR POSSIBILITY OF
SEVERE WATCH.

HIGH BASED TSTMS CURRENTLY DEVELOPING FROM FAR SE MT/FAR NE WY/WRN
SD INTO WRN/NCNTRL NEB INVOF WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY...WHERE AIRMASS
HAS BECOME PROGRESSIVELY UNCAPPED ATTRIBUTABLE TO AMPLE SFC HEATING
AND DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER ENVIRONMENT. MODIFIED RUC SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR 1500-2000 J/KG MLCAPE...MAXIMIZED ACROSS SW
SD/WRN NEB. MERRIMAN NEB PROFILER FEATURES DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR
ON THE ORDER OF 40 KTS...WHICH WILL CONTRIBUTE TO POTENTIAL FOR HIGH
BASED SUPERCELL STRUCTURES AS STORMS PROPAGATE SEWD. THE DEGREE OF
SHEAR AND MODERATE INSTABILITY/VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT
LARGE HAIL POTENTIAL...WHILE RELATIVELY DRY/MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER MAY
LEAD TO STRONG DOWNDRAFTS/ISOLD DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

..GUYER.. 07/28/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OAX...ABR...GID...LBF...UNR...CYS...BYZ...

46080431 44860260 41969821 40919886 40910069 41640276
43460460 45360491 

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