[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 271908
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 271908 
MEZ000-MAZ000-NHZ000-RIZ000-VTZ000-CTZ000-NYZ000-PAZ000-272115-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1890
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0208 PM CDT WED JUL 27 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...NEW ENGLAND AND ERN NY

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 692...

VALID 271908Z - 272115Z

18Z ALBANY SOUNDING INDICATES THAT THE WARM SECTOR HAS BECOME
MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE OF 2330 J/KG AND NO INHIBITION. 
PRIMARY CONVERGENCE AXIS REMAINS ALONG THE PRE-FRONTAL/LEE TROUGH
SITUATED FROM CNTRL NH ACROSS SRN VT AND INTO NERN PA. TSTMS REMAIN
COINCIDENT WITH THIS TROUGH...BUT THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT OTHER
STORMS WILL FORM FARTHER E ACROSS NRN NJ...SERN NY...NWRN CT AND WRN
MA THROUGH 20Z.  

THE ALBANY SOUNDING ALSO SHOWS A FAVORABLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT TO
SUPPORT SUPERCELLS THAT WILL MOST LIKELY BE EMBEDDED WITHIN SHORT
LINE SEGMENTS. STRONGER CELLS MAY PRODUCE HAIL...BUT THE PRIMARY
CONCERN IS FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ACROSS INTERIOR NEW ENGLAND AND
ERN NY...INCLUDING LONG ISLAND.  TSTMS WILL GRADUALLY INTENSIFY AND
MAY EVOLVE INTO SMALL LEWPS/BOWS AS THEY HEAD EWD INTO SRN
NH...CNTRL/WRN MA...CT AND THE NEW YORK CITY METRO AREA THROUGH LATE
AFTN/EVE.

..RACY.. 07/27/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...BTV...OKX...ALY...BGM...

41717555 45067181 44386889 40637242 41107365 

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