[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 271853
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 271852 
MNZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-272045-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1889
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0152 PM CDT WED JUL 27 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...SE ND/FAR NE SD/NRN MN

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 271852Z - 272045Z

THREAT FOR ISOLD/MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS FROM SE ND/FAR NE SD
INTO NRN MN. A SEVERE WATCH IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED...HOWEVER
WILL MONITOR CONVECTIVE TRENDS.

AIDED BY SEVERAL LOW AMPLITUDE MID LEVEL IMPULSES PER WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY...TSTMS EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS INVOF COLD FRONT/WIND SHIFT FROM SE ND/FAR NE SD INTO
NW/NCNTRL MN. IN SPITE OF MARGINAL BUOYANCY PER 12Z RAOBS/RUC
SOUNDINGS...MODEST HEATING AND COLD MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES /-16C TO
-18C AT 500 MB/ COMBINED WITH SUFFICIENTLY STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL BE
FAVORABLE FOR AT LEAST MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WITH THE STRONGEST
UPDRAFTS. IN ADDITION TO PROMOTING DEVELOPMENT OF MULTICELL
CLUSTERS...MODERATE/LARGELY UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES MAY ALSO
SUPPORT STRONG WIND GUSTS...REFERENCE 30-35 KT 2-6 KM WLYS IN GRAND
FORKS WSR-88D VWP.

..GUYER.. 07/27/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF...ABR...BIS...

48639493 48669404 48329238 47619237 45969455 45189819
46029941 46809958 47669713 48219591 

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