[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 271936
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 271935 
NYZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-DEZ000-VAZ000-MDZ000-DCZ000-WVZ000-272130-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1891
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0235 PM CDT WED JUL 27 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...MID-ATLANTIC REGION

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 693...

VALID 271935Z - 272130Z

LATEST VWP PLOTS AND THE 18Z ABERDEEN MARYLAND SOUNDING INDICATE
THAT THE STRONGEST VERTICAL SHEAR/H5 FLOW EXIST N OF THE MASON-DIXON
LINE.  BUT...THE AIR MASS HAS BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH
MLCAPES OF 2000-2500 J/KG AND ALMOST NON-EXISTENT INHIBITION OVER
ALL OF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION.  VSBL SATELLITE SEEMS TO INDICATE
THAT THE CU FIELD ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN/VCNTY SEA-BREEZE
BOUNDARIES IS BEGINNING TO SPROUT AND TSTM INITIATION IS LIKELY FROM
SCNTRL PA SWD INTO WRN VA BY 20Z.  OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES EMANATING FROM
CONVECTION WEST OF THE APPALACHIAN CREST MAY AUGMENT LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE AS WELL.

THE SLIGHTLY STRONGER FLOW ACROSS ERN PA AND NJ MAY BE SUFFICIENT
FOR BRIEF SUPERCELLULAR STRUCTURES.  FARTHER S...DESPITE WEAKER WIND
FIELDS...THE WLY UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW REGIME AND LOW-LEVEL INVERTED-V
THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SHORT LINE SEGMENTS
TO BOW...PRODUCING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.  ACTIVITY SHOULD MOVE INTO
THE HARRISBURG AND BALTIMORE/WASHINGTON AREAS BETWEEN 21-23Z.

..RACY.. 07/27/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OKX...PHI...AKQ...CTP...LWX...RNK...

38057973 40837708 40757333 37937605 

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