[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 271556
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 271555 
NHZ000-MAZ000-VTZ000-CTZ000-NYZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-VAZ000-DCZ000-WVZ000-271800-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1888
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1055 AM CDT WED JUL 27 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...INTERIOR NEW ENGLAND/ERN NY SWD INTO CNTRL
APPALACHIANS

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 271555Z - 271800Z

TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY 18-20Z FROM ERN NY SWD INTO THE
CNTRL APPALACHIANS/DELMARVA REGION.  MAIN SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL
BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SUBTLE WAVE MOVING NEWD ACROSS
OH...EMBEDDED WITHIN THE LARGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING EWD ACROSS
THE MIDWEST.  THE WAVE AND ASSOCIATED LARGE SCALE ASCENT SHOULD MOVE
ACROSS THE UPPER OH VLY/MIDDLE ATLANTIC AND INTO NEW ENGLAND LATER
THIS AFTN/EVE.

THOUGH THE PRIMARY SYNOPTIC FRONT WILL SLOWLY APPROACH THE
REGION...A LEE-TROUGH WILL STRENGTHEN ACROSS ERN NY SWD INTO ERN VA.
AIR MASS VCNTY THIS TROUGH WILL REMAIN VERY UNSTABLE OWING TO HOT
TEMPERATURES AND RICH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE.  MLCAPES WILL RANGE FROM
2000-2500 J/KG.  MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES ARE WARM /MINUS 4-6C AT
H5/...BUT AS LARGE SCALE ASCENT ARRIVES...TSTMS WILL GRADUALLY
DEVELOP ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN.  INITIAL STORMS WILL PROBABLY FORM
OVER CNTRL PA/ERN NY EARLY THIS AFTN...WITH LATER DEVELOPMENT
EXPECTED ALONG THE LEE-TROUGH FROM SCNTRL/SERN PA SWD INTO ERN VA.

MODEST WSWLY UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW THROUGH THE COLUMN WILL PROMOTE A
SLOW EVOLUTION INTO SMALL SCALE LEWPS/BOWS.  THE STRONGEST VERTICAL
SHEAR WILL BE CONFINED TO AREAS PRIMARILY NORTH OF THE MASON-DIXON
LINE WHERE BRIEF SUPERCELL STRUCTURES MAY BE POSSIBLE. MAIN SEVERE
THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...THOUGH A FEW STRONGER STORMS
MAY PRODUCE MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL...PARTICULARLY WITH ANY
SUPERCELLS.

ONE OR MORE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WATCHES MAY BE REQUIRED BY EARLY
AFTN ACROSS THE REGION.

..RACY.. 07/27/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...BTV...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...AKQ...CTP...LWX...PBZ...

38597569 37937635 37577706 37807787 38327865 39297919
40207880 41077782 41807612 42617514 43357408 43727362
43857266 43627199 42897205 42047265 41307321 40187419
39417510 

WWWW