[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 250739
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 250739 
NDZ000-SDZ000-MTZ000-WYZ000-250945-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1858
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0239 AM CDT MON JUL 25 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN MT...NWRN SD THROUGH SWRN ND

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 250739Z - 250945Z

AN INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IS EXPECTED FROM SERN MT
THROUGH SWRN ND AND NWRN SD DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. STRONGER
STORMS MIGHT POSE A THREAT FOR ISOLATED HAIL. THIS AREA WILL
CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.

A LOW LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN FROM SERN MT
THROUGH SRN ND THIS MORNING CONCURRENT WITH AN INCREASE IN FORCING
FOR ASCENT DOWNSTREAM FROM A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ENEWD THROUGH S
CNTRL MT. LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS A RESERVOIR OF MODERATE
INSTABILITY OVER SD. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY FROM SRN ND INTO NWRN SD AS THE LOW LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE
DEVELOPS SEWD THIS MORNING. ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY BE MOSTLY ELEVATED.
HOWEVER...MODERATE INSTABILITY...STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND
SUFFICIENT CLOUD LAYER SHEAR WILL SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR ROTATING
UPDRAFTS WHICH MAY ENHANCE THE THREAT FOR HAIL.

..DIAL.. 07/25/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...ABR...BIS...UNR...BYZ...

46709910 45310151 44590407 46100553 47020249 47799958 

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