[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 250445
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 250445 
MNZ000-IAZ000-SDZ000-NEZ000-250545-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1857
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1145 PM CDT SUN JUL 24 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN SD/NWRN IA AND SWRN MN

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 674...

VALID 250445Z - 250545Z

ISOLATED HAIL THREAT REMAINS ACROSS WW...THOUGH GREATER THREAT MAY
BE HEAVY RAINFALL.

LOW LEVEL JET HAS STRENGTHENED ACROSS ERN NEB...PROVIDING STRONG
LIFT OVER QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT...THAT STRETCHED E-W ACROSS NERN
NEB AND NRN IA. THIS LIFT WAS RESULTING IN NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE WW AREA. DESPITE SOMEWHAT WEAK MID LEVEL WINDS...THE LOW
LEVEL JET WAS SUPPLYING A VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS TO THE STORMS. 
HOWEVER...MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES ARE VERY WARM SO ONLY A MARGINALLY
SEVERE HAIL THREAT EXISTS. THE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE IN
THE SAME GENERAL AREA FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND MOVE SLOWLY.
THUS...LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS LIKELY...ESPECIALLY FROM YKN TO OTG.
THE STORMS SHOULD GRADUALLY WEAKEN LATER TONIGHT AS THE LOW LEVEL
JET SPEEDS ARE FORECAST TO DECREASE ACROSS THE AREA.

..IMY.. 07/25/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MPX...DMX...FSD...OAX...LBF...

44079850 44139489 42819488 42799848 

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