[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 251354
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 251353 
OHZ000-MIZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-251530-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1859
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0853 AM CDT MON JUL 25 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...NERN IL...EXTREME SRN LWR MI...NRN IND AND NRN OH

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 251353Z - 251530Z

PLAN VIEW PROFILERS/VWPS INDICATE THAT THE LLJ HAS VEERED TO WSWLY
WITH THE NOSE OF THE JET IMPINGING ON THE FRONT SITUATED FROM THE
CHICAGO AREA EWD INTO NRN OH.  RESULTANT WARM ADVECTION HAS LIKELY
BEEN THE IMPETUS FOR INCREASING TSTMS FROM NRN IL INTO NCNTRL IND
SINCE 13Z.

VSBL SATL SHOWS THAT THE DOWNSTREAM AIR MASS WAS ESSENTIALLY
CLOUD-FREE AND THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL WARM RAPIDLY THROUGH EARLY
AFTN ALONG/S OF THE FRONT.  12Z SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW VERY
STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND GIVEN MAGNITUDE OF HEATING AND
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE...TSTMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO GROW
UPSCALE/ROOT INTO THE BOUNDARY LAYER AS THEY MOVE EWD. 

PRESENCE OF 30-35 KTS OF FLOW IN THE 4-6KM LAYER AND UNIDIRECTIONAL
WSWLY FLOW REGIME THROUGH THE COLUMN WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR STORMS TO
POSSIBLY EVOLVE INTO A BOW ECHO AND PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS.  LARGE
HAIL WILL ALSO BE LIKELY GIVEN THE STEEP LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT. 

TSTMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP/MOVE EWD FROM NRN IL/NRN IND INTO EXTREME
SRN LWR MI AND NRN OH THROUGH LATE MORNING.  A WW MAY BE REQUIRED
SOON.

..RACY.. 07/25/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...PBZ...CLE...ILN...DTX...IWX...GRR...IND...LOT...ILX...DVN...

40778846 41218938 42018893 42378667 42308487 42148328
41888176 41368086 40838116 40388210 40398268 40438352
40458515 40538701 

WWWW