[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 242046
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 242046 
MIZ000-OHZ000-INZ000-242245-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1848
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0346 PM CDT SUN JUL 24 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...LWR MI...PARTS OF NRN IND AND NW OH

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 242046Z - 242245Z

CONVECTIVE INITIATION IS UNCERTAIN...BUT TRENDS ARE BEING CLOSELY
MONITORED FOR INCREASING SEVERE THREAT AND POSSIBILITY OF A WW.

WITH PASSAGE OF WARM FRONT...SURFACE DEW POINTS HAVE SURGED INTO THE
MID/UPPER 70S ACROSS MUCH OF LOWER MICHIGAN.  TEMPERATURES HAVE
GENERALLY CLIMBED INTO THE 90S...CONTRIBUTING TO EXTREME POTENTIAL
INSTABILITY...WITH MIXED LAYER CAPE NOW IN EXCESS OF 4000 J/KG. 
ELEVATED MIXED LAYER ADVECTING AROUND NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS CAPPING BOUNDARY LAYER...AND FORCING FOR UPWARD
VERTICAL MOTION WITHIN BROADLY ANTICYCLONIC MID/UPPER FLOW REGIME IS
UNCERTAIN.

MODELS DO SUGGEST THE PRESENCE OF A WEAK IMPULSE EMBEDDED WITHIN
THIS REGIME...WHICH COULD AID INITIATION OF STORMS AS CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURES ARE APPROACHED LATE THIS AFTERNOON.  LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS
BECOMING INCREASINGLY CONVERGENT ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN...IN BROAD
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTH OF PRIMARY SURFACE LOW OVER NORTHERN
ONTARIO.  WEAK LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION REGIME PERSISTS AHEAD OF
TROUGH AXIS...WHICH COULD BECOME FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT BY
22-00Z.  THIS APPEARS MOST LIKELY EAST OF LANSING...AND
WEST/NORTHWEST OF DETROIT...POSSIBLY SOUTHWESTWARD INTO NORTHEASTERN
INDIANA.  

GIVEN MAGNITUDE OF INSTABILITY...SHEAR PROFILES ARE QUITE STRONG AND
SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS WITH POTENTIAL FOR VERY LARGE HAIL/
DAMAGING WINDS...AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED STRONG TORNADO.

..KERR.. 07/24/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...CLE...DTX...APX...IWX...GRR...

41868242 41388337 41328562 42188585 43358549 44088460
44178350 

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