[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 242110
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 242110 
IAZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-242245-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1849
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0410 PM CDT SUN JUL 24 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL NEBRASKA INTO NRN AND CENTRAL IA

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 242110Z - 242245Z

STORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT 1-3 HOURS. A WW COULD BE REQUIRED
FOR HAIL AND WIND.

SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS WEAK SURFACE PRESSURE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM
WI ACROSS IA AND NEBRASKA...COINCIDENT WITH LOW LEVEL DEFORMATION
ZONE. THE AIR MASS HAS BECOME STRONGLY UNSTABLE THIS AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUED HEATING WILL OCCUR. MODIFIED FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE
CONVECTIVE INHIBITION HAS ERODED OVER MUCH OF THE AREA...AND LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS FORECAST TO INCREASE DUE TO INCREASING SLY LOW
LEVEL JET...ESPECIALLY OVER ERN NEBRASKA. THUS...AT LEAST ISOLATED
SEVERE DEVELOPMENT IS ANTICIPATED BY LATE AFTERNOON.

ALTHOUGH MID TO UPPER LEVEL WIND PROFILES WILL REMAIN
WEAK...INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET WILL ALLOW HELICITY TO
INCREASE...WITH WIND PROFILES/HODOGRAPHS SUPPORTING VERY SLOW MOVING
SUPERCELLS BY EARLY EVENING...ESPECIALLY OVER NEBRASKA.

..JEWELL.. 07/24/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DVN...ARX...DMX...FSD...OAX...GID...LBF...

43229540 43299346 43379229 43329158 42259111 41979338
41319623 40589853 40629911 41360030 41920048 42180027
42699955 

WWWW