[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 240814
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 240814 
SDZ000-240945-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1842
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0314 AM CDT SUN JUL 24 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN SD

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 240814Z - 240945Z

STORMS MAY CONTINUE TO POSE A THREAT FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS AND HAIL AS THEY DEVELOP EWD THROUGH SERN SD. A WW WILL LIKELY
BE ISSUED SOON. 

EARLY THIS MORNING A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM EXTREME SERN SD SWWD
THROUGH WRN NEB. HIGHER THETA-E AIR WITH 3000+ MU CAPE N OF THE
BOUNDARY...BUT LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS A FAIRLY STRONG CAP.
THIS SUGGESTS PRIMARY AREA OF FUTURE DEVELOPMENT WILL REMAIN N OF
THE FRONT AND ALONG/BEHIND A N-S ORIENTED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WHERE
LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD POOL IS DEEP AND STRONG ENOUGH TO
INITIATE STORMS. STORMS ARE MOVING ENEWD AT AROUND 35 KT. THOUGH
VERTICAL WIND PROFILES WITH MID LEVEL FLOW 25 TO 30 KT ARE NOT
PARTICULARLY STRONG...THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES APPEAR SUFFICIENT TO
SUPPORT A THREAT OF HAIL AND STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WITH THE
STRONGER STORMS.

..DIAL.. 07/24/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FSD...ABR...UNR...

44129699 43159882 43000019 43729999 44219852 44599726 

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