[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 240657
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 240657 
MIZ000-WIZ000-240900-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1841
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0157 AM CDT SUN JUL 24 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...NRN WI...UPPER MI AND SRN LOWER MI

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 667...

VALID 240657Z - 240900Z

THE THREAT FOR ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND IS EXPECTED TO
PERSIST ANOTHER SEVERAL HOURS ACROSS NRN WI THROUGH WRN AND CNTRL
UPPER MI. SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL MAY ALSO INCREASE OVER CNTRL AND
NRN LOWER MI DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS...AND THIS AREA IS BEING
MONITORED FOR A WW.

THIS MORNING A WARM FRONT EXTENDS FROM S CNTRL MN SEWD THROUGH N
CNTRL WI. STRONGEST LIFT AND DESTABILIZATION ACCOMPANYING THE 50+ KT
SWLY LOW LEVEL JET IS CURRENTLY FROM NRN WI...WRN UPPER MI AND INTO
LAKE MI WHERE ELEVATED STORMS CONTINUE. STORMS ARE DEVELOPING ALONG
NRN PERIPHERY OF THE STRONGER CAP AND STEEPER LAPSE RATES. IT IS
BEGINNING TO APPEAR THAT DEVELOPMENT OF STRONGER STORMS INTO SWRN
PARTS OF WW 667 IS UNLIKELY DUE TO PRESENCE OF STRONGER CAP.
INSTABILITY IS WEAKER WITH ERN EXTENT INTO LOWER MI. HOWEVER...THE
LOW LEVEL JET WILL GRADUALLY VEER THIS MORNING...CONTRIBUTING TO
INCREASING THETA-E ADVECTION AND DESTABILIZATION EWD WITH TIME. THIS
SUGGESTS STRONGER STORMS SHOULD GRADUALLY BE ABLE TO DEVELOP FARTHER
EWD INTO LOWER MI. POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL WILL CONTINUE WITH THE
MORE INTENSE CORES. ALSO SOME OF THE STORMS WITHIN THE MCS MAY
EVENTUALLY BECOME FORWARD PROPAGATING WITH AN INCREASING THREAT OF
DAMAGING WIND.

..DIAL.. 07/24/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DTX...APX...GRR...MQT...GRB...DLH...

46879031 46178603 43328385 42598582 45318839 46489179 

WWWW