[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 231724
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 231724 
WIZ000-MNZ000-231900-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1837
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1224 PM CDT SAT JUL 23 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...SE MN/SRN AND CNTR WI

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 663...

VALID 231724Z - 231900Z

A SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY CONTINUE AS A BOW ECHO MOVES THROUGH THE
ERN PART OF WW 663. THE THREAT MAY CONTINUE INTO CNTRL WI AND A WW
MAY BE NEEDED EAST OF THE CURRENT WW.

A BOWING MCS IS CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS WRN WI AND IS ASSOCIATED
WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND VORTICITY MAX MOVING QUICKLY EWD ACROSS
NRN MN. SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A WARM FRONT IN PLACE FROM SE MN
EXTENDING SSEWD INTO NRN IL WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY LOCATED NEAR
THE BOUNDARY. AS THE BOW ECHO MOVES ESEWD AT 50 KT...THE FORWARD
SPEED COMBINED WITH THE INSTABILITY AND STRONG DEEP LAYER
SHEAR...SHOULD MAINTAIN A WIND DAMAGE THREAT. HAIL WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER CELLS. HOWEVER...THE SEVERE THREAT MAY
BECOME MARGINAL ACROSS ERN WI WHERE INSTABILITY WEAKENS
SUBSTANTIALLY.

..BROYLES.. 07/23/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...GRB...MKX...ARX...MPX...

43008825 44159220 45479187 44298767 

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