[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 231710
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 231710 COR
ARZ000-OKZ000-231900-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1836
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1210 PM CDT SAT JUL 23 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...WRN AR / ERN OK

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 231710Z - 231900Z

CORRECTED FOR LOCATION HEADER

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER WRN AR IN THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL AND WIND WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE
STRONGEST CELLS...BUT A WW IS NOT EXPECTED.

MORNING SOUNDINGS AROUND THE AREA INDICATE RELATIVELY STEEP MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN PLACE...FROM 6.5 TO 7.5 C/KM. STRONG DAYTIME
HEATING WILL OCCUR WITH AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN
PLACE...RESULTING IN STRONG INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPE IN EXCESS OF
3000 J/KG. THE ENVIRONMENT WILL THUS BE FAVORABLE FOR A FEW PULSE
SEVERE. GIVEN WEAK ELY FLOW AROUND SRN SIDE OF UPPER RIDGE...STORMS
WILL LIKELY MOVE SLOWLY WWD...AND MAY MOVE INTO ERN OK LATER THIS
AFTERNOON.

..JEWELL.. 07/23/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...

36189323 35849287 34969279 34369327 34239424 34649538
35259588 35659574 36249442 36389363 

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