[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 232010
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 232010 
ILZ000-WIZ000-232145-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1838
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0310 PM CDT SAT JUL 23 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...SE WI...NRN IL...SRN LAKE MI

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 664...

VALID 232010Z - 232145Z

A CONVECTIVE LINE MOVING QUICKLY SEWD WILL LIKELY HAVE A SEVERE
THREAT OVER THE NEXT 1-3 HOURS. A NEW WW IS BEING ISSUED ACROSS SERN
WI AND FAR NE IL.

OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS AN AXIS OF INSTABILITY EXTENDING
NNWWD FROM WRN IL INTO ERN IA. A FAST MOVING CONVECTIVE LINE IS
MOVING QUICKLY SEWD ALONG THE ERN EDGE OF THE INSTABILITY GRADIENT
WHERE STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR EXISTS. ALTHOUGH MLCAPE VALUES ARE BELOW
1000 J/KG AHEAD OF THE LINE...THE SHEAR WILL LIKELY HELP SUSTAIN THE
LINE AS IT MOVES SEWD INTO FAR SE WI...SRN LAKE MI AND NE IL OVER
THE NEXT 1-3 HOURS. CONSIDERING THE SPEED OF THE LINE IS NEAR 50
KT...A WIND DAMAGE THREAT WILL LIKELY CONTINUE. HAIL WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE.

..BROYLES.. 07/23/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LOT...MKX...DVN...

43338971 43918834 43418727 43028692 42048717 41668859
42278977