[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 231447
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 231447 
WIZ000-MNZ000-231615-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1834
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0947 AM CDT SAT JUL 23 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN MN...WCNTRL WI

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 662...

VALID 231447Z - 231615Z

A SEVERE THREAT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE ERN PART OF WW 662 OVER THE
NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS. A NEW WW EAST OF THE CURRENT WATCH WILL LIKELY BE
NEEDED BETWEEN 1500Z AND 1530Z AS THE CONVECTION MOVES INTO WRN WI.

A WELL-ORGANIZED BOW ECHO IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH SCNTRL MN AND
IS ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROUNDING THE CNTRL US
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE. THE BOW IS LOCATED JUST NORTH OF A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WHERE SFC DEWPOINTS ARE NEAR 70 F AND MLCAPE VALUES ARE
NEAR 1500 J/KG. DESTABILIZATION SHOULD CONTINUE AHEAD OF THE BOW AS
SFC HEATING OCCURS THIS MORNING. THIS COMBINED WITH STRONG DEEP
LAYER SHEAR SHOULD ALLOW THE BOW TO REMAIN ORGANIZED AS IT MOVES
INTO WRN WI OVER THE NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS. A FORWARD SPEED OF 50 KT
SHOULD MAKE WIND DAMAGE LIKELY WITH THE BOW. IN ADDITION...OBJECTIVE
ANALYSIS SHOWS MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES EXCEEDING 7.0 C/KM ACROSS PARTS
OF SRN MN WHICH SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR A HAIL THREAT.

..BROYLES.. 07/23/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...GRB...MKX...ARX...MPX...

45039111 44478941 43898946 43349004 43769243 44369477
45209480 45669429 

WWWW