[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 230756
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 230756 
NDZ000-231000-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1833
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0256 AM CDT SAT JUL 23 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN ND INTO W CNTRL MN

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 230756Z - 231000Z

ISOLATED HAIL MAY ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER STORMS DEVELOPING OVER ND.
AT THIS TIME OVERALL DOES NOT APPEAR TO WARRANT A WW...BUT THE AREA
WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.

THUNDERSTORMS HAVE INCREASED IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OVER CNTRL
AND SRN ND. ACTIVITY IS DEVELOPING ALONG THE NERN EDGE OF THE
STEEPER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WHERE RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THE
PRESENCE OF A MID LEVEL INVERSION ABOVE A STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER.
THIS THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE APPEARS TO BE LIMITING THE ABILITY OF
STORMS TO TAP INTO THE HIGHER THETA-E AIR BELOW 3 KM. HOWEVER...
DESTABILIZATION AND LIFT ACCOMPANYING A 40+ KT SLY LOW LEVEL JET
WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT ELEVATED STORMS BASED AROUND 3 KM. LAPSE
RATES AND ELEVATED CAPE MIGHT BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT A LEAST A
MARGINAL THREAT FOR ISOLATED HAIL NEXT FEW HOURS...ESPECIALLY AS
ACTIVITY DEVELOPS TOWARD SERN ND WHERE LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS
SHOWS WEAKER MUCIN.

..DIAL.. 07/23/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS...

46069921 46160180 47880163 47099703 45969675 

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