[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 231657
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 231656 
NDZ000-231830-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1835
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1156 AM CDT SAT JUL 23 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL AND ERN ND

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 231656Z - 231830Z

NUMEROUS STORMS ARE SLOWLY INTENSIFYING ACROSS CNTRL ND. THE
CONVECTION WILL LIKELY HAVE A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT OVER THE NEXT
1-3 HOURS.

SFC ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS A WARM FRONT IN PLACE ACROSS CNTRL ND
WITH 70+ SFC DEWPOINTS ADVECTING NWD ACROSS THE REGION. ABOVE THE
BOUNDARY LAYER...A CAPPING INVERSION EXISTS WITH MOST OF THE
INSTABILITY ABOVE 700 MB. AS A RESULT...THE CONVECTION IN CNTRL ND
WITH ELEVATED IN NATURE. THE STORMS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH ASCENT AHEAD
OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING NEWD ACROSS SWRN ND AND SERN MT. THE
ASCENT WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT STORM INITIATION WITH THE STORMS
GRADUALLY BECOMING CLOSER TO SFC-BASED AS THE CAPPING INVERSION
WEAKENS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REGION. THE ELEVATED
INSTABILITY...MODERATE TO STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR AND MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES EXCEEDING 7.0 C/KM SHOULD RESULT IN A HAIL THREAT. AS THE
STORMS BECOME ROOTED CLOSER TO THE SFC...A MARGINAL WIND DAMAGE
THREAT WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

..BROYLES.. 07/23/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS...

48829761 47359698 46449786 46390020 47200135 48770038 

WWWW