[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 230005
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 230004 
MTZ000-WYZ000-230130-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1832
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0704 PM CDT FRI JUL 22 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...NERN WY

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 230004Z - 230130Z

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS INCREASING ACROSS NERN WY AND CONVECTIVE
TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW.

SUSTAINED SELY UPSLOPE FLOW INTO THE BIG HORNS HAS RECENTLY
INITIATED A TSTM OVER ERN JOHNSON COUNTY. MESOANALYSIS SUGGESTS THAT
THIS STORM IS DEVELOPING WITH A NW-SE ORIENTED LOW-LEVEL THETA-E
AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE VICINITY OF THE BIG HORNS SEWD INTO THE NEB
PNHDL. HERE...TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S COUPLED WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE
50S ARE RESULTING IN MLCAPES OF 1000-2000 J/KG. BOUNDARY-LAYER
MOISTURE AND RESULTANT INSTABILITY DECREASE WITH EWD EXTENT INTO THE
BLACK HILLS...SO THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW LARGE SPATIALLY
THIS FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT IS GIVEN AN ANTICIPATED EWD
STORM MOTION. VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES ARE MORE THAN SUPPORTIVE OF
SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED AND A WW MAY BECOME NECESSARY
WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO.

..MEAD.. 07/23/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...UNR...CYS...BYZ...RIW...

44130673 44760683 45140640 45270552 45100457 44360439
43590448 43220491 43120538 43390646 

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