[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 222322
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 222322 
TNZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-230045-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1831
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0622 PM CDT FRI JUL 22 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...NERN AR AND WRN TN

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 222322Z - 230045Z

POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SEVERE WINDS/HAIL WILL EXIST WITH ONGOING
TSTMS THROUGH 01-03Z. A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

TSTMS HAVE GRADUALLY INCREASED IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OVER THE
PAST HOUR OR SO FROM THE MO BOOTHEEL INTO NWRN TN WITHIN HOT AND
MOIST AIR MASS WHERE MLCAPES REMAIN AROUND 2500-3500 J/KG. RUC
PROXIMITY SOUNDINGS AND LOCAL VWPS INDICATE N-NE WINDS INCREASING
WITH HEIGHT ABOVE THE BOUNDARY-LAYER WITH ROUGHLY 20-30 KTS OF
DEEP-LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR. WHILE MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE NOT
PARTICULARLY STEEP...THE STRONG OVERALL INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY
SUPPORT A FEW ORGANIZED STORMS CAPABLE OF ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS THIS EVENING.

A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM. HOWEVER...IF ONGOING STORMS GROW
UPSCALE INTO AN MCS WITH FORWARD-PROPAGATION CHARACTERISTICS...A WW
MAY BE CONSIDERED.

..MEAD.. 07/22/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OHX...PAH...MEG...

36149063 36349029 36408835 36218787 35588797 35118846
35068954 35159021 35489069 

WWWW