[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 222222
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 222222 
MEZ000-NHZ000-MAZ000-VTZ000-NYZ000-222345-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1830
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0522 PM CDT FRI JUL 22 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL ME WWD ACROSS NRN/CNTRL NEW ENGLAND INTO
CNTRL NY

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 661...

VALID 222222Z - 222345Z

THROUGH 00Z...GREATEST THREAT OF PRIMARILY DAMAGING WINDS WILL EXIST
FROM E-CNTRL NY EWD ACROSS CNTRL/SRN PORTIONS OF VT/NH.

ANTECEDENT TSTM ACTIVITY EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON HAS RESULTED INTO
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A OUTFLOW BOUNDARY/DIFFERENTIAL HEATING ZONE
EXTENDING FROM JUST N OF GFL EWD TO S OF RUT TO JUST N OF CON. AIR
MASS S OF THIS BOUNDARY FROM THE HUDSON VALLEY EWD ACROSS SRN NEW
ENGLAND REMAINS MODERATELY UNSTABLE THIS EVENING WITH MLCAPES OF
1000-1500 J/KG. IT APPEARS THAT GREATEST THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS
AND ISOLATED LARGE HAIL WILL EXIST WITH ONGOING STORMS PERSISTING
ALONG OR JUST N OF THIS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM NW OF RUT EWD INTO
SWRN ME WHERE INFLUX OF MOIST BOUNDARY-LAYER AIR MASS SHOULD SUPPORT
ORGANIZED UPDRAFTS.

ADDITIONAL CLUSTER OF STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE STORMS SW OF ALB
WILL ALSO REMAIN CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED LARGE HAIL
AS COMPLEX MOVES ESEWD THROUGH THE HUDSON VALLEY...POSSIBLY INTO WRN
MA. LARGELY UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES OBSERVED ON AREA VWPS
SHOULD SUPPORT A MORE LINEAR CONVECTIVE MODE ESPECIALLY WITH ONGOING
STORMS SW OF ALB. ALONG/N OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...STORMS MAY TEND TO
REMAIN MORE CELLULAR AND MAY PERIODICALLY EXHIBIT SOME MID-LEVEL
ROTATION OWING TO SLIGHTLY BETTER LOW-LEVEL VEERING WIND PROFILE.

..MEAD.. 07/22/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...CAR...GYX...BOX...BTV...ALY...BGM...BUF...

44987408 44956903 42647156 42727646 

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