[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 221634
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 221634 
NHZ000-VTZ000-NYZ000-PAZ000-221800-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1825
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1134 AM CDT FRI JUL 22 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...NY...NRN PA...VT...NH

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 221634Z - 221800Z

ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WILL BE LIKELY OVER THE NEXT 1-3 HOURS ACROSS
NY...VT...NH AND NRN PA. A WW MAY BECOME NECESSARY ACROSS THE REGION
THIS AFTERNOON.

SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING NE TO SW
ACROSS NRN VT...CNTRL NY INTO WRN PA. CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS
BOUNDARY AND SFC HEATING IS HELPING TO INITIATE STORMS IN NRN AND
WRN NY. THE STORMS ARE BEING SUPPORTED BY AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE
TROUGH EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR AND RUC ANALYSIS FIELDS.

OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS ACROSS THE REGION SHOWS INSTABILITY SUFFICIENT
FOR STRONG UPDRAFTS WITH MODERATE VERTICAL SHEAR FAVORABLE FOR
SEVERE MULTICELL STORMS. A MINI-SUPERCELL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE IN
AREAS WITH LOCALLY ENHANCED SHEAR. LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL
CONTINUE TO STEEPEN THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS COMBINED WITH
UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES WILL FAVOR WIND DAMAGE WITH THE FASTER
MOVING LINE SEGMENTS. HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER
CELLS.

..BROYLES.. 07/22/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...GYX...BTV...ALY...BGM...BUF...CTP...

43127266 41357650 41627829 42627830 45017419 45107211
44217137 

WWWW