[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 221726
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 221726 
VAZ000-NCZ000-WVZ000-TNZ000-221900-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1826
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1226 PM CDT FRI JUL 22 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...VA...NRN NC

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 221726Z - 221900Z

CONVECTION IS STARTING TO INITIATE MAINLY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
VA AND NC. AS THE STORMS DEVELOP AND MOVE ESEWD THIS AFTERNOON...A
MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT MAY EXIST WITH THE STRONGER CELLS.

WATER VAPOR AND RUC ANALYSIS FIELDS SHOW STRONG ASCENT MOVING INTO
THE CNTRL APPALACHIAN MTNS THIS AFTERNOON ASSOCIATED WITH AN
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THIS SHOULD PROMOTE SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. MODERATE
INSTABILITY IS ALREADY IN PLACE AS EVIDENT ON OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS. IN
ADDITION...A NARROW BAND OF MODERATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS ANALYZED
OVER NRN VA IN ASSOCIATION WITH A MID-LEVEL SPEED MAX MOVING INTO VA
FROM THE WEST. THE INSTABILITY COUPLED WITH THE ENHANCED SHEAR MAY
BE ENOUGH FOR A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT AS STORMS MOVE OUT OF THE
HIGHER TERRAIN THIS AFTERNOON. WIND DAMAGE WOULD BE THE PRIMARY
THREAT.

..BROYLES.. 07/22/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...LWX...RAH...RNK...RLX...GSP...MRX...

38288051 37668179 36588217 35558092 35907814 36957687
37937692 38587766 38657861 

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