[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 220023
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 220023 
SDZ000-220130-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1819
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0723 PM CDT THU JUL 21 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...WRN SD

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 657...

VALID 220023Z - 220130Z

APPEARS THREAT OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL DEVELOP S OF WW
657 BY 01Z AND A NEW WW WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY.

AS OF 0015Z...RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED A CLUSTER OF SEVERE STORMS WITH
EMBEDDED MESOCYCLONES OVER PERKINS COUNTY MOVING 340/35 KTS.
MODIFICATION OF 00Z RAP SOUNDING FOR HIGHER BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE
OBSERVED IN INFLOW AIR MASS YIELDS MLCAPES OF AROUND 2000 J/KG AND
LITTLE OR NO CONVECTIVE INHIBITION. ADDITIONAL STORMS DEVELOPING
SWWD INTO NERN BUTTE COUNTY SHOULD FURTHER ENHANCE COLD POOL
GENERATION...ALLOWING STORMS TO GROW UPSCALE INTO AN MCS.

VERTICAL SHEAR REMAINS FAVORABLE FOR EMBEDDED SUPERCELL STRUCTURES.
THEREFORE...THREAT OF LARGE HAIL WILL PERSIST IN ADDITION TO
DAMAGING WINDS AS SYSTEM MOVES/PROPAGATES SEWD TOWARD INTERSTATE 90.

..MEAD.. 07/22/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...ABR...UNR...

45110324 45100017 43730051 43700359 

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